投资美元的通货膨胀保护
截至2022年6月的12个月期间, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) — the most widely used measure of inflation — increased 9.1%， 40多年来最快的增长速度.1 的 rate may trend downward as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and supply-chain issues improve. But inflation is likely to be relatively high for some time.
High inflation not only hits consumers in the pocketbook for current spending, it also has a negative impact on the future purchasing power of fixed-income 投资s. For example, a hypothetical 投资 earning 5% annually would have a 真正的回报 of –2.5%在7.年通货膨胀率5%. This rate of return might be further reduced by taxes.
One way to help hedge your bond portfolio against inflation is by investing in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).
TIPS如何对抗通货膨胀
的 principal value of TIPS is automatically adjusted twice a year to match any increases or decreases in the Consumer Price Index. If the CPI-U moves up or down, the Treasury recalculates your principal to reflect the change. A fixed rate of interest is paid twice a year based on the current principal, 所以利率也会波动. 因此, you are trading the certainty of knowing exactly how much interest you'll receive for the assurance that your 投资 will maintain its purchasing power over time.
和所有国库券一样, TIPS are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. 如果你持有TIPS到到期, you will receive the greater of the inflation-adjusted principal or the amount of your original 投资.
价格保护
TIPS pay lower interest rates than equivalent Treasury securities that don't adjust for inflation. 的 盈亏平衡通胀率 is the difference between the yield of TIPS and nominal (non-inflation-protected) Treasury securities with similar maturities. It is the premium the investor pays for inflation protection, as well as a market-based measure of expected inflation.
如果通胀高于预期, TIPS will earn a better return than nominal Treasury securities. If inflation runs below the breakeven rate, then TIPS have no clear advantage. 然而, the increased principal due to any level of inflation can still add to the value of your portfolio.
在某些情况下, TIPS can have negative interest rates that might produce a positive return after the principal is increased for inflation. For example, if a five-year TIPS offers a return of –0.5% while a five-year Treasury note offers a return of 2.5%, the 3% difference between these rates is the 盈亏平衡通胀率. If inflation were to run at 4% over the five-year period, the TIPS would return 3.5% (4%–0.5%) after adjustments for inflation, 1% higher than the return on the Treasury note.2
购买力下降
在长时间的低通货膨胀之后, consumer prices spiked in 2021 and 2022 due to supply and demand imbalances as the U.S. 经济开放.
消费物价指数12个月的百分比变动
资料来源:美国.S. 劳工统计局，2022年
TIPS are sold in $100 increments and are available in maturities of 5, 10, and 30 years. 和所有的化学键一样, the return and principal value of TIPS on the secondary market will vary with market conditions, 对利率变动敏感吗, and may be worth more or less than their original cost. When interest rates rise, the value of existing TIPS will typically fall on the secondary market. Changing rates and secondary-market values should not affect the principal of TIPS held to maturity.
You must pay federal income tax each year on the interest income from TIPS plus any increase in principal, even though you won't receive the principal and interest until the bonds mature. For this reason, investors might consider holding TIPS in a tax-deferred account such as an IRA.
